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Lock of the Week, Upset of the Week, and Scores for Every Game

After a challenging, confounding week of NFL football, will some semblance of normalcy return? Let’s hope. But the deeper into the 2022 NFL season we get, the muddier the outlook. We try to cut through the fog with our NFL Week 11 picks and predictions.

All lines are as of Wednesday and courtesy of Caesars.

NFL Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week

Betting line
Bengals -4.5; Bengals -220, Steelers +180; O/U 41

Everything sets up for the Bengals to have a big day. They’re coming off their bye, so their health should be as good as it’s been in a while.

After a one-week blip as they adjusted to life without Ja’Marr Chase (who will miss his third game with a hip injury), the Bengals’ offense had its best game of the year in Week 6, dropping 42 on the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers’ defense ranks 28th in yards per pass (7.3), 24th in dropback EPA (.101), and 18th in pass DVOA (7.6%).

That unit will be tested by a quarterback in Joe Burrow, who has found his groove. In his last three games, Burrow has thrown nine touchdowns to just one interception and has completed a ridiculous 76.8% of his passing attempts.

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Plus, the Bengals have maximum motivation in this game. At 5-4, the defending AFC champions would miss the playoffs if the season ended today.

A big reason why? The Bengals are 0-3 against AFC North opponents. Expect that to change Sunday when they face the weakest of the bunch.

The Steelers got a lift from the return of T.J. Watt in their Week 10 win over the Saints, but that was against the league’s 22nd-ranked offense, in terms of EPA per play. The Bengals rank fifth.

Beasley: Bengals 26, Steelers 15
Miller: Bengals 24, Steelers 21
Robinson: Bengals 25, Steelers 17

NFL Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week

Betting line
Patriots -3; Patriots -170, Jets +143; O/U 38.5

The Jets are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in road games in 2022, including 3-0 as road underdogs.

After entering the season on a 12-game losing streak against divisional opponents, they’ve beaten both the Dolphins and Bills to move into the 5 seed in the AFC.

And now they seem primed to finally get the two-ton monkey off their backs.

MORE: Early NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2015, a stretch of 13 straight losses to New England in which New York had been outscored by a staggering 19.2 points per game.

So no wonder bettors are dubious of the Jets’ chances, particularly at Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots own an 11-game winning streak against New York. But very few of these current Jets were around for the vast majority of those losses. This is the most talented Jets team since the Rex Ryan era.

The Jets have a superior record, DVOA, yard differential, point differential, and offensive efficiency. And while the Patriots’ defense is playing great — allowing 68 points over their last five games — the Jets’ D is no slouch either. New York has allowed more than 17 points just once since Week 5.

Beasley: Jets 20, Patriots 19
Miller: Jets 23, Patriots 20
Robinson: Patriots 21, Jets 17

More NFL Picks and Predictions

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

Betting line
Packers -3; Packers -170, Panthers +143; O/U 41

The Green Bay Packers looked like a completely different team a week ago against the Dallas Cowboys. Christian Watson changes the passing attack, whether he’s catching touchdown passes or dropping them. His speed is a game-changer on the outside, and Aaron Rodgers can still drop it in the bucket for the young receiver.

Tennessee is another solid defense for Green Bay to measure up against. They’re built differently than the Cowboys, however. The Titans have Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry to dominate the line, and the back end is incredibly well-coached in zone and zone match, whereas the Cowboys decided to run more man looks.

The Titans are playing some ugly offense and winning ugly games, but they’ve always been different under Mike Vrabel. The way they win shouldn’t work in the modern NFL, but it has consistently resulted in wins over the past four seasons. However, Green Bay is hungry and trying to claw back into the playoff picture.

— Dalton Miller

Beasley: Packers 21, Titans 20
Miller: Packers 23, Titans 21
Robinson: Titans 23, Packers 21

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Betting line
Ravens -12; Ravens -700, Panthers +500; O/U 43.5

Carolina is going back to Baker Mayfield this week. PJ Walker suffered a high-ankle sprain a week ago, so Mayfield gets another shot at redemption. Carolina has figured out how to be somewhat entertaining over the past few weeks, which is a far cry from where they were at the season’s start.

Baltimore has been one of the best teams in the league. They’re good on offense (third), defense (12th), and special teams (first), according to Football Outsiders DVOA. They’ve had the lead in each fourth quarter this season. Their passing attack and run game both excel, and their defense continues to improve as the season progresses.

— Dalton Miller

Beasley: Ravens 30, Panthers 15
Miller: Ravens 27, Panthers 17
Robinson: Ravens 27, Panthers 17

Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

Betting line
Commanders -3; Commanders -165, Texans +140; O/U 40.5

The Washington Commanders are playing well. Since moving on from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke, the Commanders have won three of their four games, with their only loss coming against Minnesota by three points. Heinicke will start again Sunday.

Washington’s defense continues to improve, and that should not change against Houston, who has the third-worst offense in the NFL according to DVOA. Dameon Pierce is an incredibly fun player, but Houston doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with most teams.

It’s interesting that given each team’s current form, this is only a three-point spread, but Washington kept its quarterback plans close to the vest midway through the week.

— Dalton Miller

Beasley: Commanders 24, Texans 20
Miller: Commanders 20, Texans 15
Robinson: Commanders 22, Texans 11

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Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

Betting line
Bills -8; Bills -385, Browns +300; O/U 43

We originally thought this was going to be a slopfest in the snow, but the weather has changed a bit and it looks like the snow will be out of the way by Saturday. The Bills have lost two in a row and risk losing even more ground in the AFC East and in the hunt for the top seed in the conference.

Buffalo’s run defense seems to be leaking a bit. They continue to be largely successful against the run, but between the Jets’ final quarter and Dalvin Cook’s 81-yard scamper, the holes are starting to show. With injuries in the secondary, Amari Cooper might be able to take advantage.

Josh Allen has to take care of the ball. He’d been fantastic, but over the past two games, he’s struggled, particularly in the red zone. The Bills have struggled in the red zone all season. They don’t need their quarterback being the reason why.

— Dalton Miller

Beasley: Bills 29, Browns 16
Miller: Bills 24, Browns 20
Robinson: Bills 29, Browns 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts

Betting line
Eagles -6.5; Eagles -305, Colts +240; O/U 45

The Eagles obviously didn’t want to lose to the Commanders on Monday night, but there’s probably at least some sense of relief in Philadelphia’s building now that they no longer have to face the prospect of an undefeated season.

Now, the Birds will play a team that relieved some pressure of its own in Week 10. Jeff Saturday won his first game as the Colts’ head coach, temporarily stymying the idea that he’d be an unmitigated disaster. His decision to turn back to Matt Ryan paid off, and Jonathan Taylor posted his best performance since Week 1 as Indy took down the Raiders.

Philadelphia is a much more difficult test. The Eagles are better than the Colts in nearly every area, but Washington showed a run-heavy, ball-control strategy could work against Nick Sirianni’s squad. Indianapolis will need another excellent performance from Taylor and their offensive line to stand any chance.

— Dallas Robinson

Beasley: Eagles 26, Colts 17
Miller: Eagles 28, Colts 17
Robinson: Eagles 28, Colts 20

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Betting line
Giants -3; Giants -170, Lions +143; O/U 45.5

The No. 1 reason the Giants are 7-2 and in control of their own destiny in the NFC East isn’t Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones (although they’ve both played great).

Rather, the G-Men are the surprise team of 2022 because they take care of business against the league’s dregs. They’re 5-0 both straight up and against the spread against teams currently with losing records, according to trends provided by TruMedia. New York also takes care of business at home, going 4-1 ATS.

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The Lions are a lot like the Giants — except the exact opposite. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records and a dreadful 1-11-1 straight up in road games since 2021.

But they are starting to win the close games they had lost throughout most of the Dan Campbell era. After division dubs against the Packers and Bears over the last two weeks, the Lions on Sunday try for their first three-game winning streak in five years.

— Adam H. Beasley

Beasley: Giants 27, Lions 19
Miller: Giants 28, Lions 21
Robinson: Giants 26, Lions 22

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

Betting line
Saints -4; Saints -210, Rams +175; O/U 39

Three months ago, this game would have been billed as a playoff preview. Now it’s bottom-of-the-barrel obligation that can’t even be called a Tank Bowl because neither team owns its first-round pick in 2023.

So yeah, these are the bad times for the Saints (3-7) and Rams (3-6). Our view is Andy Dalton’s gotta go after throwing six picks in his last four starts. But Dennis Allen doesn’t agree. Dalton will start again this week.

Could Jameis Winston (who has dealt with a back injury basically the entire season) provide a spark? It’s hard to see how he’d be much worse.

But here’s what’s really wild. The Saints have lost four of their last five games — and, on paper, are a far better team than the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Rams’ offense is atrocious no matter who starts at quarterback — Matthew Stafford or John Wolford. They’re 32nd in yards per play (4.7), 31st in yards per carry (3.2), and 30th in yards per pass (6.0) — and it’s hard to see how those numbers will improve without the injured Cooper Kupp.

— Adam H. Beasley

Beasley: Saints 24, Rams 15
Miller: Saints 21, Rams 18
Robinson: Saints 23, Rams 20

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Betting line
Falcons -3; Falcons -170, Bears +143; O/U 50

Justin Fields has become one of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks over the last three weeks. During that stretch, he’s thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception, rushed for 385 yards, and ranks seventh in EPA per play. The Bears scored 91 points from Weeks 8-10, second-most in the league behind the Dolphins.

The only problem? Chicago’s defense allowed 115 points over those games, the most in the NFL, and the Bears lost all three contests. Fields is playing out of his mind, but Chicago’s defense — which lost Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn at the trade deadline — can’t stop anyone.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ playoff hopes took a serious hit over the last two weeks. Entering Week 9, FiveThirtyEight gave Atlanta a 44% chance to make the postseason. Two Falcons losses and two Buccaneers wins later, Atlanta’s odds are down to just 14%. At some point, Arthur Smith will have to consider giving starts to third-round rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder.

— Dallas Robinson

Beasley: Falcons 26, Bears 24
Miller: Bears 35, Falcons 33
Robinson: Falcons 27, Bears 23

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

Betting line
Broncos -2.5; Broncos -145, Raiders +122; O/U 41.5

Had the AFC West become the powerhouse many expected this season, this Raiders-Broncos matchup could have had significant divisional and postseason implications. Instead, it’s a contest between two teams with a combined 5-13 record.

Las Vegas secured a 32-23 victory when these clubs first played in Week 4, and they’ll likely aim to deploy a similar game plan this time around. Josh Jacobs pounded Denver for 144 yards and two scores, while Davante Adams commanded nearly 40% of Derek Carr’s targets en route to nine receptions and 101 yards. With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow now on injured reserve, the Raiders will again rely almost entirely on Jacobs and Adams.

Russell Wilson posted his second-best QBR of the year in that first game against Denver, but things have since gone off the rails. The Broncos are 1-3 in their last four games, and while every contest was a one-score affair, Denver didn’t top 21 points in any of them. Wilson and his battered offensive line now have to face Maxx Crosby, which almost certainly won’t go well.

— Dallas Robinson

Beasley: Broncos 24, Raiders 18
Miller: Broncos 20, Raiders 10
Robinson: Raiders 22, Broncos 17

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Betting line
Cowboys -1; Cowboys -120, Vikings +100; O/U 47.5

After a disappointing performance from Dallas against Green Bay and a surprising performance from Minnesota against the Bills, it feels a little odd that the Cowboys are favored. But the fundamentals favor Dallas, who have a top-three defense with an incredible pass-rush unit and a standout corner.

Should Dak Prescott play as he did against the Bears — or how he has for most of his career — they’ll have a much more complete squad than the Vikings. But Prescott hasn’t played like that in his limited showings this year. On top of that, the Cowboys do have issues defending the run, and the Vikings have been getting better at running the ball every week.

The key will, of course, be Justin Jefferson. Given that Trevon Diggs doesn’t often shadow receivers, we’ll likely see some Jefferson-specific plays and another highlight performance. It’s hard for Dallas to keep pace with that, even if CeeDee Lamb resolves his drop issues, and even if Dallas can reignite Ezekiel Elliott against a clutch defense nevertheless full of holes.

— Arif Hasan

Beasley: Cowboys 25, Vikings 23
Miller: Vikings 30, Cowboys 27
Robinson: Cowboys 28, Vikings 25

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Betting line
Chiefs -6.5; Chiefs -305, Chargers +240; O/U 50

The Chiefs tend to struggle a bit more against divisional opponents than otherwise, and this Chiefs team plays it quite a bit sloppier than previous iterations. But they’re learning how to use all of their new offensive pieces just in time and are getting healthier in the secondary.

In the meantime, the Chargers are getting progressively more injured in the way only the Chargers can and are putting stress on Justin Herbert to bail them out, something he has done with much less frequency this year.

But if anyone can match Patrick Mahomes for unlikely arm angles and highlight throws, it’s Herbert. Given how Khalil Mack is playing and how much the Kansas City offensive line struggles against elite rushers, the Chargers have a good chance to make a dent in the Chiefs’ AFC aspirations.

— Arif Hasan

Beasley: Chiefs 30, Chargers 20
Miller: Chiefs 30, Chargers 20
Robinson: Chiefs 30, Chargers 22

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Betting line
49ers -8; 49ers -365, Cardinals +285; O/U 43.5

The 49ers are kings of offensive design and know how to make the most of their pieces on offense and defense. But they’ve had struggles this year regardless, as elements of their defense have been hurt or put in bad positions.

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They once again have a few defensive linemen and defensive backs hurt, which will expose them to Kyler Murray’s scrambling and DeAndre Hopkins’ phenomenal talent.

Still, the 49ers may be limited by Jimmy Garoppolo but should still match the fast Cardinals’ defense with speed of their own in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.

Highlight defensive plays will probably define the matchup, and if the Cardinals can get Zaven Collins, J.J. Watt, Budda Baker, and Isaiah Simmons on the same page, there could be fireworks.

— Arif Hasan

Beasley: 49ers 25, Cardinals 19
Miller: 49ers 27, Cardinals 17
Robinson: 49ers 26, Cardinals 19

Season standings through 10 weeks

Adam Beasley: 83-66-1 straight up, 68-78-4 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 88-61-1, 71-75-4
Dallas Robinson: 95-54-1, 74-72-4



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