This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We’re onto NFL Week 3 and after two weeks, we’re starting to be able to draw some conclusions like Buffalo being the team to beat, the Eagles being a challenger for the NFC crown, and the Lions being a feisty bunch. We still have plenty of question marks league-wide, though, and this week’s slate will really put our betting minds to the test with several matchups that are tough to decipher.
Below you’ll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 3 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week.
NFL Week 3 Betting Picks For Each Game
|Date||Game Matchup||Week 3 Picks|
|Thursday, September 22||Browns vs. Steelers||Steelers +5.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Patriots vs. Ravens||Patriots+3|
|Sunday, September 25||Colts vs. Chiefs||Colts +7|
|Sunday, September 25||Panthers vs. Saints||Panthers +2.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Bears vs. Texans||Bears -3|
|Sunday, September 25||Dolphins vs. Bills||Dolphins +5.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Vikings vs. Lions||Lions +6|
|Sunday, September 25||Jets vs. Bengals||Bengals-5|
|Sunday, September 25||Titans vs. Raiders||Raiders -2|
|Sunday, September 25||Commanders vs. Eagles||Eagles -6.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Chargers vs. Jaguars||Chargers -7|
|Sunday, September 25||Buccaneers vs. Packers||Packers +2.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Cardinals vs. Rams||Rams -3.5|
|Sunday, September 25||Seahawks vs. Falcons||Falcons +2|
|Sunday, September 25||Broncos vs. 49ers||49ers -1.5|
|Monday, September 26||Giants vs. Cowboys||Giants -2.5|
Predictions for NFL Week 3
In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 3 odds and our predictions for each NFL game.
Browns vs. Steelers
|Browns vs. Steelers||Browns (-5.5)||Browns -205; Steelers +175||38.0|
This is a far cry from last week’s Chiefs-Chargers Thursday nighter but hey, it’s still football. Both of these teams are coming off of rough Sundays; Cleveland forgot how to play defense against checks notes Present Day Joe Flacco and the Jets while Pittsburgh’s offense is clearly still in search of its identity in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. This line has moved two full points in Cleveland’s direction since Sunday while the total is down 2.5 points. Pittsburgh’s offense does look woeful, but trusting Jacoby Brissett to cover nearly six points on a short week – even against a T.J. Watt-less defense – is too much for me.
Spread Pick: Steelers +5.5
Total Pick: Under 38.0 (Yuck)
Patriots vs. Ravens
|Patriots vs. Ravens||Ravens (-3.0)||Ravens -155; Patriots +135||43.5|
This one is tricky. The line has stayed steady at Ravens -3 since Sept. 13. Maybe the oddsmakers view the Patriots’ loss to the Dolphins as a bigger reason for concern than the Ravens’ meltdown against them this past week. After two weeks, a couple of things seem clear from these two teams. 1.) The Patriots’ offense is bad, perhaps bad enough to not be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s leaky secondary. 2.) The Ravens cannot run the ball unless it’s Lamar Jackson carrying the rock. We have strength on strength (Ravens O vs. Patriots Defense) and weakness on weakness (Pats Offense vs. Ravens Defense). The story of this game will boil down to whichever team’s weakness is, well, weaker.
Spread Pick: Patriots +3
Total Pick: Under 43.5
Colts vs. Chiefs
|Colts vs. Chiefs||Chiefs (-7.0)||Chiefs -285; Colts +240||49.5|
As Michael Rathburn noted in his NFL Week 3 line movement article, this has been one of the more active lines this week. It’s hard not to be enamored with how the Chiefs look thus far, and it’s also hard not to be disgusted by what Indianapolis has put on the field. That being said, the line is now at Kansas City -7. Does Kansas City have the talent to blow out the Colts on the road? Absolutely. But I’m not going to bet on that. Instead, I’ll hold my nose and take Indianapolis and the points. Kansas City is 8-10 against the spread on the road since 2020. In that same timeframe, the OVER in Chiefs road games is 11-7 with an Avg. O/U of 52.8.
Spread Pick: Colts
Total Pick: Over
Panthers vs. Saints
|Panthers vs. Saints||Saints (-2.5)||Saints -150; Panthers +130||40.5|
This one’s a doozie. On the one side, we have a Saints team that benefited from a Falcons meltdown in the opener before losing to the Bucs at home thanks in part to five (!) turnovers. Carolina hasn’t looked much better with a pair of narrow losses to start the season. We can’t really trust either team here, so I’ll just side with the home underdog. I hope this is the game Red Zone forgets about in the early window so I don’t have to see any of it.
Spread Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total Pick: Under 40.5
Bears vs. Texans
|Bears vs. Texans||Bears (-3.0)||Bears -145; Texans +125||40.5|
Woof. The Bears don’t seem interested in finding out whether Justin Fields is the guy; 17 attempts in crazy weather conditions is forgivable. 11 attempts in a catch-up script when the weather was fine in Green Bay is less so. Meanwhile, Houston seems to be well-coached for the most part but is lacking the talent to be taken seriously. I like taking Houston when it’s getting a lot of points, but three is a different story. I’ll take the home side and hope that Chicago lets Justin Fields be Justin Fields (I can hear the groans in Chicago fans from here).
Spread Pick: Bears -3
Total Pick: Under 40.5
Dolphins vs. Bills
|Dolphins vs. Bills||Bills (-5.5)||Bills -225; Dolphins +190||53.5|
This game has it all. It’s a divisional matchup featuring the Super Bowl favorites going on the road to face a Dolphins team that looks electric under its new regime. The line has danced around a good bit; Buffalo went from -3.5 to -4.5 after its statement win over the Rams in the opener. It jumped again to -6 Tuesday morning after the Bills trounced the Titans on Monday night but is down to -5.5 as of this writing. It feels risky going against this Buffalo team right now, but I don’t think the Dolphins will get rattled when the Bills’ offense shows up the way the Rams and Titans did. I’m not sure the Dolphins can win this one outright, but I like their chances of going punch-for-punch with the Bills. At least for a while.
Since 2020, when Josh Allen started to become the Josh Allen we know today, the Over in Bills road games has hit at a 63% clip (12-5-2) with an average total of 50.1. It’s hard to imagine the Bills staying under 28 points here and it’s also hard to imagine the Dolphins offense being grounded. I like the over the most from this game, even if it’s inflated.
Spread Pick: Dolphins +5.5
Total Pick: Over 53.5
Vikings vs. Lions
|Vikings vs. Lions||Vikings (-6.0)||Vikings -245; Lions +205||53.5|
On paper, this matchup features two vulnerable defenses. That’s reflected in the total, as is a newfound respect for the Lions’ offense from the oddsmakers as the number has gone up three points in the last week. But is the defensive vulnerability a fair conclusion to make when both of these teams have had to face a relentless Philadelphia offense?
Either way, it’s interesting that the line barely budged after the Lions win on Sunday but moved 1.5 points after the Vikings were beaten soundly Monday night. That tells me the oddsmakers aren’t totally sold on the Lions but are getting a little suspicious of the Vikings. If the line stays at 6.0, I’ll side with the Lions. However, if it drops to 5.5, then I’ll have to seriously consider backing Minnesota.
Spread Pick: Lions +6.0
Total Pick: Under 53.5
Jets vs. Bengals
|Jets vs. Bengals||Bengals -(-5.0)||Bengals -210; Jets +180||45.5|
What on earth are we supposed to do with this one? Will the Bengals continue to be the reckoning for Survivor Pools? The Cincy offensive line looks dreadful thus far, though the Jets aren’t built to make the Bengals pay for it the way the Steelers and Cowboys did. This Bengals team still has the requisite talent to be competitive this season and the Jets can only beat so many teams with Joe Flacco at the helm. If anything, the Bengals loss helps matters – at least for those who haven’t completely lost faith in them yet. This line was Cincinnati -6 after Week 1 and even after that disastrous game in Dallas, I still think the Bengals take care of business here.
Spread Pick: Bengals -5
Total Pick: Over 44.5
Titans vs. Raiders
|Titans vs. Raiders||Raiders(-1.0)||Raiders -130; Titans +110||45.5|
This matchup looked a lot more appealing over the summer and now it has turned into a spot where both teams are desperate to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. Tennessee’s no-show Monday night in Buffalo has sent the line up a point in the Raiders’ direction but it’s still under a field goal. It’s hard to trust a Raiders team that just melted down against the Cardinals, though there are more fixable issues for the Silver and Black than there are with this Titans team right now. Tennessee might be a sinking ship. I’ll take the Raiders here.
Spread Pick: Raiders -2.0
Total Pick: Under 45.5
Commanders vs. Eagles
|Commanders vs. Eagles||Eagles(-6.5)||Eagles -250; Commanders +210||47.0|
Once upon a time, this game was a pick ’em. Now the Eagles look like they might be the team to beat in the NFC and are nearly touchdown favorites against a division rival on the road. Philly is 0-3-1 ATS against Washington over the last two years, but this Eagles team looks totally different this time around while Washington hasn’t exactly looked sharp yet this season. Even on a short week, I’ll lay the wood with the Eagles.
Spread Pick: Eagles -6.5
Total Pick: Over 47.0
Chargers vs. Jaguars
|Chargers vs. Jaguars||Chargers (-7.0)||Chargers -315; Jaguars +260||48.0|
This game comes down to how healthy Justin Herbert is after his rib injury in last week’s Thursday night game. This is the largest spread on the board this week, though it’s worth noting that it has moved down two full points since the Jaguars’ shutout win over Indianapolis. Traveling cross-country to face a rested Chargers team is not a recipe for the Jaguars to build off that W, though. Again, it comes down to Herbert, and you’d love to catch this at 6.5, but even still I will ride with the Chargers.
Spread Pick: Chargers -7.0
Total Pick: Under 48.0
Buccaneers vs. Packers
|Buccaneers vs. Packers||Buccaneers (-2.5)||Buccaneers -135; Packers +115||41.5|
We have two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing in this one, and yet the total is just 41.5– one of the lowest of the week. Now, why is that?
Well, the Buccaneers haven’t exactly been lighting it up on offense and are dealing with a ton of injuries. And on the other side, the Packers are still finding their offensive identity without Davantae Adams. The total has dropped nearly a full touchdown since Sept. 13. This should end up as a defensive struggle, and the injury issues surrounding Tampa Bay will be too much to overcome against a quality Green Bay squad.
Spread Pick: Packers +2.5
Total Pick: Over 41.5
Cardinals vs. Rams
|Cardinals vs. Rams||Rams (-3.5)||Rams -180; Cardinals +155||49.5|
Both of these teams got off the mat in Week 2 after dreadful showings in their season openers. The Cardinals are coming off a thrilling comeback win in Vegas while the Rams seemed to right the ship before letting the Falcons hang around a little too long this past Sunday. Even with the Rams letting their foot off the gas, they are still the better of these two teams. The Cooper Kupp–Allen Robinson duo will be too much for the Cardinals to defend in the back end and Kyler Murray, though he came out with the W last week, is averaging just 5.7 YPA without DeAndre Hopkins this season.
Spread Pick: Rams
Total Pick: Under 49.5
Seahawks vs. Falcons
|Seahawks vs. Falcons||Seahawks (-2.0)||Seahawks -125; Falcons +105||42.0|
Last week was more indicative of who the Seahawks really are than the emotional season-opening performance against the Broncos. Seattle’s offense didn’t muster a point in San Francisco, and though I don’t expect its offense to look as anemic against Atlanta, it’s still a shaky unit that can be shut down if the run game isn’t chugging along. As for Atlanta, the team is adjusted to being on Pacific Time, so the body clock narrative goes out the window. I view Atlanta as the slightly better team and the home-field advantage in Seattle won’t be as pronounced as it was in Russell Wilson‘s return. I like the road dogs here.
Spread Pick: Falcons
Total Pick: Under
Broncos vs. 49ers
|Broncos vs. 49ers||49ers (-1.5)||49ers -120; Broncos +100||45.5|
San Francisco’s quarterback just went out for the season and yet the line has moved from 49ers +2.0 to -1.5 since Sunday. Now, to be fair, Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t your normal backup quarterback, but it’s an interesting development nonetheless. The 49ers looked in rhythm under his direction Sunday against the Seahawks and San Francisco still has playoff aspirations with Jimmy G at the helm. Getting George Kittle back in the fold would be a huge added boost for the 49ers offense, though we’re TBD on that front right now.
The other element here is Denver. Until he gives us reason not to, Nathaniel Hackett is a coach to bet against. His in-game decisions and clock management are non-viable right now, so that means San Francisco has a huge coaching advantage on top of a slight talent edge in this spot.
Spread Pick: 49ers -1.5
Total Pick: 45.0
Giants vs. Cowboys
|Giants vs. Cowboys||Giants (-2.5)||Giants -130; Cowboys +110||39.5|
Credit where it’s due; the Cowboys executed their game plan with Cooper Rush to perfection last week. A huge part of that win came from the defensive side of the ball where Dallas was able to feast on Cincinnati’s porous offensive line, though. Even if the Cowboys dial up a similar approach this week, I’m not sold that they can execute it quite as well. Rush is a ticking timebomb for a killer mistake and the longer he’s out there, the higher the likelihood that he makes that mistake Monday night. That gets compounded if Dallas falls behind early. The Giants aren’t a great team; they may not even be a good team. But they’re sound, they’re at home, and they only have to win by a field goal.
Spread Pick: Giants -2.5
Total Pick: Over 39.5
NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 3 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites.
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 3
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 3. If you’re not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 3 at BetMGM.
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 3
Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 3. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Steelers +5.5
- Panthers-Saints UNDER 40.5
WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 3
WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 3 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.
DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 3
DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 3 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
- Rams -3.5
- Buccaneers-Packers OVER 41.5
FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 3
One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.
BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 3
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 3.
- Panthers +3
- Giants-Cowboys OVER 39.5
PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 3
For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 3 NFL picks. You can try “PointsBetting” for Week 3 to maximize your return.
- Ravens-Patriots UNDER 43.0
- Lions +6
Look ahead at the NFL Week 4 odds as well, if you’re interested in getting ahead of the line movement.